SelectGlobal 2025 Year-End Brief

12.30.2025 11:28 AM - By Michael Edgar

10 Trends to Learn From; 10 Things to Look For

10 Trends to Learn From; 10 Things to Look For

By the end of 2025, the rules changed quietly but decisively. Capital no longer flows to the cleanest spreadsheet or the lowest nominal cost. It flows to jurisdictions with power, labor depth, political durability, and enforceable control over supply chains.

One reality became unmistakable this year. Resilience is no longer a premium feature. It is the minimum requirement. Energy availability, workforce demographics, regulatory alignment, and national security considerations now sit upstream of cost in nearly every serious investment decision.

This year end brief captures the forces that actually constrained outcomes in 2025 and the signals most likely to shape 2026. These are not speculative narratives or aspirational forecasts. They are operational constraints observed in real projects, real approvals, and real capital allocations. Position accordingly.

SelectGlobal 2025 Year-End Brief
December 30, 2025

10 Trends That Defined 2025

1. Fortress North America Acceleration
Mexico became the #1 U.S. trading partner ($930B annually), with $64.7B in FDI in just seven months. The shift from "cheapest" to "safest" supply chains is irreversible.

2. China's $1 Trillion Trade Surplus Problem
China's record surplus masks structural weakness: overcapacity, weak domestic demand, and a demographic cliff losing 7-8M working-age people annually. The export model is terminal.

3. FEOC Killed Solar Manufacturing
Foreign Entity of Concern restrictions didn't just complicate deals—they eliminated entire business models overnight. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" accelerated the collapse.

4. Power Is the Real Constraint
Not chips. Not capital. Electrons. Grid interconnection queues stretched to 7 years. Data centers need 84 GW by 2027. Oracle committed $40B to Abilene because Texas had gigawatts available.

5. Demographics = Destiny
Japan (median age 49), Europe (44), China (trending 36+) face irreversible aging. North America's integrated youth advantage (U.S. 38, Mexico 30) creates a 30-year competitive runway.

6. Dollar Stablecoins Extend Monetary Sovereignty
$234B in stablecoins (99% USD-denominated) backed by U.S. Treasuries. Citizens worldwide bypass weak currencies via smartphone. No CBDC needed—private infrastructure wins.

7. Skilled Trades Shortage Meets Automation
550,000 plumber shortage by 2027. 30% of electricians retiring. But: Registered Apprenticeships hit 940,000 participants. Automation creates the bridge, not the job killer.

8. Office of Strategic Capital Goes Live
Government-matched private capital deployment into 31 critical technology categories. Manhattan Project-scale mobilization—this isn't aspirational, it's operational.

9. Supply Chain = National Security
Rare earths, semiconductors, batteries—China controls 60-70% of critical processing. Reshoring isn't trade policy; it's existential vulnerability mitigation.

10. Manufacturing Multipliers Beat Knowledge Work
Every manufacturing job creates 2.5-4.0 additional local jobs. Knowledge work? 1.6-1.8x. Factory towns generate tax base. Professional towns create bifurcated inequality.

10 Things to Watch in 2026

1. USMCA Renewal (July 2026)
This determines if Mexico stays Tier 1 or reverts to higher tariffs. Framework durability checkpoint.

2. Trump-Xi Détente Expiration (November 2026)
One-year pause on rare earth controls and semiconductor investigations ends. Escalation or extension?

3. UFLPA Enforcement Expansion
Q3 2026 review could extend detention powers to auto, electronics, semiconductors. Companies are repositioning preemptively.

4. Grid Queue Times
Are we stabilizing at 7 years or accelerating to 10+? This determines infrastructure buildout speed.

5. Mexico Wage Inflation
Above 7% annually compresses arbitrage. Below 4% sustains Tier 1 advantage. Current trajectory: 4-5%.

6. Defense Tech Cultural Shift
Silicon Valley's 20-year anti-military era is ending. Watch talent and capital flows into Anduril, Palantir, autonomous systems.

7. Registered Apprenticeship Scaling
Can completion rates stay above 50% while expanding beyond 940,000 participants? Employer-led models work; public retraining fails.

8. Data Center Power Demand
55 GW today → 84 GW by 2027. Utilization rates at 80-90% prove this isn't speculation. Track deployment pace quarterly.

9. China's Closing Window
Every year, Beijing loses 7-8M workers. Military urgency increases. Taiwan risk peaks 2026-2030.

10. Stablecoin Adoption Trajectory
$234B today. Citi projects $1.9-4T by 2030. Tether already holds more Treasuries than South Korea. Dollar infrastructure 2.0 is here.

The Pattern Is Clear:
Physical capital, supply chain sovereignty, and North American integration are not cyclical themes—they are the structural foundation of the next industrial era.

2025 clarified where the bottlenecks are. 2026 will determine who adapts fast enough to operate within them. Advantage will not accrue to those waiting for policy certainty, cost normalization, or a return to prior assumptions. It will accrue to those who design around constraint - power first, labor second, capital third.

The question facing leaders in 2026 is not whether this realignment continues. It is whether their organizations are structurally positioned to benefit from it - or exposed by it.

Michael Edgar, Founder & CEO
SelectGlobal, LLC

About SelectGlobal:
SelectGlobal operates as your single point of accountability throughout your entire U.S. market entry journey. The Fork Framework™ gives established international companies a structured, de-risked approach to American expansion—whether testing demand virtually or committing to physical infrastructure. Our LatticeWorks ecosystem coordinates 250+ municipalities, 65+ trade offices, and 100+ alliance partners on your behalf. 🌐 www.selectglobal.net

Disclaimer
The content on this blog represents independent strategic research exploring macro trends, structural constraints, geopolitical dynamics, demographic patterns, and capital allocation frameworks. Scenarios and assessments are analytical projections based on observable data, government policy documentation, and institutional frameworks—not predictions or recommendations. This work does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Readers should verify all claims independently and consult appropriate professionals before making investment or strategic decisions.

SelectGlobal, LLC is an economic development and corporate strategy consulting firm specializing in North American market entry, site selection, government relations, and operational setup for multinational companies. Drawing on 30+ years of experience and 1,400+ combined projects across SelectGlobal, our founder's career in architecture and economic development, and our Constellation network, we advise clients on infrastructure, supply chain positioning, workforce development, and strategic capital deployment. This analysis reflects our assessment of macro trends relevant to clients navigating industrial realignment but does not constitute specific advice for any individual company or situation. Information has been compiled from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to accuracy, completeness, or correctness.

Visit www.selectglobal.net for more information.

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